Future thoughts...

[al k]

...since the boards have been a bit quiet lately, and I'm really missing the various opinions and expertise y'all have shared on drives, C&C, and get togethers, I thought I'd pose a question for discussion:

The apparent war on ICE vehicles is seemingly gaining momentum world-wide, how long do you think it will be before gas prices and/or government restrictions make owning an ICE vehicle economically undesirable, and our beloved P-cars become more difficult to own?

Secondly, are you betting on the green lobby to ultimately fail and a return to a more sustainable or progressive O&G "business as usual", or will the green economics themselves prove to be unsustainable?

No right/wrong answers or opinions, and no intent to start a keyboard war, just interested in thoughts?

Al

[mike_cann]

The ICE platform may become less desirable for some. As for us that enjoy the wrenching and driving I don?t believe the desire will ever go. There are still people that run steam because they love it. I think that will be the same for ICE. Let be real also Al we are both over the hill we don?t need to worry about any time lines.

Some day fuel will disappear and we will be reliant on other forms of energy. Currently we don?t have the infrastructure to sustain all electric nor the capacity with out oil and gas to produce it. That will change in the future and I believe the only way will be nuclear that is not the best for the environment either. Finding something that is environmentally friendly and sustainable for future energy needs I?m not sure if I will se it in my lifetime.


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[KMR 968 Turbo]

Scenario #1: World eliminates the ICE through legislation that starts by taxing and then rationing fuel making ownership difficult and expensive. Autonomous self driving electric cars roam the streets looking for patrons. Range no longer a concern as when car gets low another takes it's place. You no longer own a car. Instead you have a car service that you pay a monthly subscription for. You book what you want using your smart device. Not being required to drive leads to in transit amenities (connectivity, luxury, etc.) being more important than things like performance or exterior style. Basically the car becomes an appliance and you no longer worry about repairs, mileage, insurance or anything else. Just choose the subscription plan that suits you and carry on. Car "enthusiasts" are limited to outings at facilities where they pay to enjoy their fossil fuel relics. Much like the transition from horses to autos the basic fossil fuel people carrier becomes practically worthless. Upper echelon folks collect prized models with lineage that they can enjoy for limited use. However, as parts supply become more scarce and operating costs increase it becomes more and more difficult to sustain ICE usage.

Scenario #2: The complexity of changing everything to zero emissions takes decades to accomplish. During the transition fossil fuel use is still a necessity to maintain productive society at it's current standard of living. Governments seize opportunities to tax and spend at will. Things carry on until technology and supply dictate they change.

I think Scenario #2 is more likely but am really concerned about Scenario #1 as any regular car guy should be. I am of the firm opinion the younger you are the more you see Scenario #1 as utopia and like it or not our future will eventually be determined by the youth of today.

[herve_g]

Scenario #1 is starting to happen in specific cities (Paris is on that path) but it raises major infrastructure challenges.

ICE will most likely be part of the picture until there is some major progress done for all these places not having good train or maritime transport.
I believe fuel will stay but less accessible eventually. I like my engine, but if I have to I will switch to electric. Just give me a solid 2 seat car that I can track with, as I have no interest in "regular" vehicles.

It's a good point about the youth of today and subscription services, from talking to a few of my interns at work they usually don't want to own things...

[malcolm]

sorry Al; I started to reply with thoughts but before I knew it I was down the rabbit hole and facing the Animal Farm/1984 dillema coupled with world population control so I stopped, looked in the garage at the gorgeous P cars and had a cold beer, cheers!

[CarreraGT]

The grid is nowhere close to supporting any type of fast charging in most people's homes. If you look up the rate riders that apply at a very modest 14.4 kW charge at home it would mean an electricity bill of $1200-1400 per month. To put 14.4kW charging at night every night for a year in perspective that is almost 4x the total electricity usage for an average Canadian home to charge one car.

People aren't excited about that anymore. It's considered slow now that 130 kW chargers get you topped up in 2 hrs or less. This is requires almost 10x the current and there are several standards for charging ports only two of which are supported by any charging station at once.

Solid state batteries will begin to be commercially viable in about 5-7 yrs and with these new batteries we will see a true mass market use case with 5 minute charging and no risk of fire. However the requirements for current will jump again by large margin making all of the charging stations obsolete again for cars with these new batteries. If you can't charge your fancy battery in the fastest way possible and have to use slow chargers then what is the point?

The grid and charging infrastructure is hopelessly out of date and what is considered "fast" charging is obsolete in 3 yrs. How are the grid infrastructure and charging stations going to keep up? They need to fix that before EV's can become a mass market product.

Forcing everyone to buy EVs when they buy a new car in 2030 is a nice goal but I don't see how the grid and charging stations can keep up to the new standards that come up every 2 or 3 years. Things need to stabilize for infrastructure investment to make sense because these things are long 25+ year bets.

[ErikA]

Really enjoying this discussion - these are the thoughts that keep me awake at night! My hope is to maximize enjoyment of my ICE cars in the coming years regardless.

Brodie makes fun of my love of full-size pickups and SUVs, but the Ford F-150 is an interesting bellwether, as the #1 selling car in the US (589,000 units sold in the US in 2020). Ford launched a mild hybrid version as their top engine option, with 430 hp and 570 lb-ft of torque. A full EV version is rumoured to be on the way (2022, or perhaps in the mid-cycle refresh?). And who can forget our beloved 911, which we all expect will be hybridized in some capacity for the 992.2 version?

My personal take: I wouldn't mind driving a hybrid or EV for daily duty, and for my "I can drive to Vancouver this weekend without a second thought" car, since I'll eventually be forced to. In fact, seriously mulling the idea of getting a "PowerBoost" F-150 for daily use. I just hope I can keep the old relics for occaisional/fun use for a long, long time.

[KMR 968 Turbo]

I read an article last year regarding the transition to all electric cars and how realistic it would be. The writer was London based and put things into perspective from a UK point of view. I don't recall all the numbers exactly but the gist of what was being said was that there was no way it could be done with current technology. They said there were approx 50 million cars in the UK and if you were to replace all of them overnight with electric cars the amount of lithium needed for the batteries would exceed the known world reserves. That is just for one country let alone the world. I believe even the solid state battery technology uses lithium or other rare earth metals and resources would be a problem even with them. So charge rates and vehicle distance considerations are not the only obstacles.

[herve_g]

This article is relevant: https://jalopnik.com/massachusetts-f...gas-1845980321

Another US state lining up to ban sales of new gas-powered vehicles. The concerns about infrastructure, being able to transition (building the cars, distributing, maintaining them, etc.) are not addressed but it looks like that legislators hope that a big legal push will force providers to solve the problems.
If more states follow this, I expect that there will be a lot more EVs in the states with a lot of population, but not much will change in the central states where it would just cost too much to switch over that quickly.

[86 928S]

The way I see it is that if Calgary was to change out the power supply lines for every neighborhood to support charging stations in every house we would not have to clear snow from the streets. The heat from the underground power draw would melt the snow on contact. haha.